OMG! this was the most adventury adventure!
Ok the solution is a combination of nyc_derek and r.liechty:
First problem, inside C:\Users\USERNAME\AppData\Local\Programs\ there was no WatchFaceStudio\ folder.
However, I can see that tools/window folder here:
C:\Program Files\WatchFaceStudio\tools\window
so I just super dirty made a new folder called WatchFaceStudio in teh AppData, then copy pasted the program files “watchfacestudio/tools/window” into there. Maybe not necessary, coulda probably ran from program files. (Edit: I tested again, it worked fine running from program files/watchfacestudio/tools/window/)
Second problem, adb connect errors out no matter what, always fails, no revoking helps.
Third problem, adb pair DOES pair, it friggin worked it! However, adb devices doesn’t list the watch, watch face studio doesnt see it connected either, and the wireless debugging window on the watch pops back out of the pair screen on pairing and it’s port is magically a new random port, even tho my pc says it’s paired.
THEN, THE SECRET SAUCE!
you gotta do adb pair FIRST, then adb connect with that new random port SECOND!
adb devices now lists the watch, watch face studio sees the pixel watch! it smoothly installed on the watch and i could go to "change watch face’ and its there its FINALLY THERE!
Here’s the solution all nice and formatted:
0. Optional: In settings > Developer options, click on “stay awake when charging” and attach to charger.
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In Windows explorer, navigate to C:\Users\USERNAME\AppData\Local\Programs\WatchFaceStudio\tools\window
or
C:\Program Files\WatchFaceStudio\tools\window
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Type cmd in the explorer window address bar to open a cmd prompt to this location.
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On your watch navigate to Settings > Developer options >
Turn on ADB debugging,
then click on Wireless debugging
Turn it on, and then click Pair new device
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In the cmd prompt type adb pair 192.168.x.x:xxxxx (IP address & Port displayed on watch)
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Cmd will prompt for pairing code. Enter 6-digit Wi-Fi pairing code displayed on watch. It should say Successfully paired to 192.168.x.x:xxxxx
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On your watch, the screen will have jumped back to Wireless Debugging, and you should see the same IP address with a new random port. Also your PC is under Paired Devices. You’re only paired, not connected.
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Still in the cmd prompt, type adb connect 192.168.x.x:yyyyy Using the new random port listed on the wireless debugging window (you don’t need to click “pair” again, it’s listed under IP address & Port).
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In WatchFaceStudio select ‘Run on Device’ and your watch should appear. (Also typing adb devices in the cmd prompt should also show your watch’s IP and new (current) port).
You don’t need to re-pair again so long as you don’t revoke authorization. You DO need to “adb connect latest IP and random port” every time you turn off and on “wireless debugging”. They should have called “Pair new device” as “Authorize new device”, it would have been FAR less confusing. “pair” sounds too much like “connect”, aka they mean the same bloody thing usually. Oh google you and your word choices.